Fountain, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

175
FXUS65 KPUB 110205
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
805 PM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms are expected through around 10PM tonight
  over the eastern plains with main hazards being 1.5" hail, 70
  mph wind gusts, and an isolated tornado.

- Isolated to scattered showers over the mountains throughout
  the week with another monsoon plume developing by Thursday of
  this week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 802 PM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Updated to expire the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the
remainder of the Plains as of 8 PM. Expect generally scattered
showers and thunderstorms to continue through midnight across
the Plains, however, storms are forecast to remain below severe
limits. The strongest storms will be capable of small hail and
wind gusts near 45 mph.  Mozley

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 209 PM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Rest of Today...

Severe thunderstorms are likely over the far eastern plains at the
beginning of the forecast period between 6PM and 10PM. Modest
instability ranging from 1000 - 2000 J/kg and exceptional wind shear
(0-6km bulk) around 40 to 50 kts. The hodograph is a bit messy at
times but the overall look shows a generally straight line pattern
with low level bowing to it. Model guidance is showing storms
combining into a bow structure at this time, but embedded supercells
would favor splitting cells, right dominate, but there is evidence
to support left splits as well. Main hazards will be hail up to 1.5"
and wind gusts up to 70 MPH. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled
out. The severe risk will last through around 10PM with lingering
thunderstorms developing afterwards, but they do not looks to be
severe. If we get any training, flash flooding will need to be
monitored, as well.

Tomorrow...

The trough axis aloft continues to swing across southern Colorado
there will be isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the southern
Sangre de Cristo Mountains, the Wet Mountains, Pikes Peak Region,
and even down over Baca County. Main hazards over those regions will
be heavy rain, lightning, small hail, and gusty winds up to 40 MPH.
Outside of those areas dry and seasonally cool conditions are
expected. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to low 80s
across the entire region outside of the highest elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Slow drying trend begins Monday, as upper trough axis sinks
south of Colorado, and deeper moisture/instability drop south
into NM/nrn TX. Still enough moisture for afternoon convection
again on Mon, with best coverage of storms over the srn Sangres
and along the srn I-25 corridor, where forcing is strongest.
Mainly isolated activity farther north and west, and cut back
blended model pops a bit here, though may need to go even drier
if trends continue. Max temps Mon will remain cool, as pocket of
cooler air rotates south through the region, with highs in the
70s/80s at most locations.

From Tuesday into the end of the week, upper ridge builds over
the swrn U.S. and srn Rockies, bringing back summertime heat and
keeping deeper moisture suppressed south of the region until at
least Fri. Still enough recycled moisture and weak instability
for a daily dose of afternoon convection, mainly over the
mountains, though storm coverage will be rather sparse, and
rainfall amounts light. Upper ridge then shifts east from Fri
through next weekend, allowing a renewed tap of moisture to push
into srn CO. As a result, expect storm coverage and strength to
gradually ramp up Fri/Sat, especially back toward the
Continental Divide, where chances for much needed rainfall will
increase.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 509 PM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

For KCOS and KPUB there is a low chance (<20%) of thunderstorms
redeveloping tonight over the forecast sites. Model guidance is
resolving pop up thunderstorms for both sites around 9-12z. Due
to the low likelihood, it has been omitted from the TAF. AFter
that, VFR conditions are expected throughout the rest of the
forecast period. KALS will experience VFR conditions throughout
the forecast period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...SKELLY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...SKELLY